Break out of 1.3875 coming up?

Right now the Euro/Usd is strongly testing the support of 1.3875.  This is the September 11 low and it appears that a breakout could be under way.  This could be an opportunity to short the currency pair in the short-term.  There is a strong short-term bearish price channel on the four-hour chart.  I would short and close the position before the U.S. open.

Remember that the ECB interest rate decision is coming up and although it is expected to be maintained at 4.25%, we could be seeing some traders discount a possible rate cut.  Even without the rate cut, there is a high chance of Trichet softening his stance on inflation.  That would add greater downward pressure.

Update: Position was opened at 1.3858 and closed at 1.3758 for exactly a 100-pip gain. Was pretty lucky in almost catching the very bottom.